People are wondering how the Department of Health (DOH) data reported only 111 new cases on April 22, observing a “slowing down of cases” or a “plateau,” when the Cebu City local government unit (LGU) reported 139 new cases on the same day and announced the extension of the enhanced community quarantine (ECQ) in the city until May 15.
The answer, according to DOH Usec. Maria Rosario Vergeire, is that the 139 new COVID-19 cases from Cebu City have not yet been verified by the DOH.
The cases reported today in Cebu will likely be added in the coming days; but, when will it be added is the next question.
The reported new cases by Cebu City came at a time where key health officials have announced that the deaths have been approaching a plateau and that the doubling time for cases has increased.
“Mayroon tayong graph na yung cases nagpapakita, yung deaths nagpa-plateau. So kelan siya babagsak? Maghintay pa tayo ng konti pang panahon,” said Health Secretary Franciso Duque III in an interview.
[We have a graph that shows cases, deaths approaching a plateau. When will it fall? We need to wait for a little more time.]
“Ang sabi ng mga eksperto, bumabagal na ang doubling time. Ibig sabihin kung dati, sa loob ng tatlong araw dumodoble ang mga kaso, ngayon ay mas matagal na ito, halos limang araw na ang average. Ito ay malaking improvement pero syempre mas gusto natin na mahigit sa 30 araw ang ating doubling time,” said Vergeire in an April 21 press briefing.
[Experts said doubling time is slower. This means if before, it takes three days for cases to doube, now it takes longer, almost six days average. This is a big improvement but we want to see 30 days doubling time.]
The DOH reported there is now 6,710 COVID-19 cases in the country, 693 recoveries and 446 deaths. Aside from 111 new cases, 39 new recoveries and nine deaths were tallied.
DOH COVID-19 CASE BULLETIN #039As of 4PM today, April 22, 2020, the Department of Health reports 111 new cases…
Geplaatst door Department of Health (Philippines) op Woensdag 22 april 2020
Meanwhile, the Cebu City Public Information Office has confirmed that there are 139 new cases in the city, 123 of them inside the Cebu City Jail. This brings the total number of COVID-19 cases in the city to 312.
Cebu City Mayor Edgar Labella said that the city jail has assigned a new building that would act as an isolation facility with the capacity of 3,000 people.
A similar disparity can be observed with the data of deaths in NCR with the DOH data of the whole country. In the last week, the number of deaths reported by LGUs in NCR is only lower by more or less 20 than the DOH data on deaths in the whole country. On April 9, reported deaths by LGUs in NCR were higher than total number of deaths in the country reported by DOH.
The health department has repeatedly clarified that the total number of positive patients are always higher than the number of confirmed positive patients because the data still undergoes case validation.
But if there is a backlog in reporting and/or recording of cases, another question for the DOH is how could trends of “slowing down” or “plateau” have been observed for the present?
