DOH presser talks of starting to flatten the curve, “delaying the third wave” as early as May 6

Arguing that there is no flattening the curve and no second wave? But DOH has talked of starting to flatten the curve and delaying a third wave since May 6.

But as early as May 6, the Department of Health (DOH) said in its press briefing that the Philippines is beginning to flatten the curve. Also as early as that briefing, the DOH presented a member of the Inter-Agency Task Force on Emerging Infectious Diseases (IATF) sub-technical working group who said relaxing the enhanced community quarantine (ECQ) will see another surge of cases and the country must delay a third wave.

DOH Usec. Maria Rosario Vergeire and Dr. John Wong, an epidemiologist with the IATF sub-technical working group on data analytics talked of these on that May 6 briefing, a week before the second extension of the lockdown was supposed to expire.

Vergeire said that the two indicators showing the flattening of the curve – the doubling time of cases and the doubling time of deaths – have both slowed down from three days to seven.

“Kung noon po ay nakikita natin na dumodoble ang mga kaso at ang bilang ng mga namamatay sa loob lamang ng tatlong araw, ngayon ay nakikita natin na umaabot na po sa pitong araw bago dumoble ang ating mga numero,” Vergeire said.

[The number of cases and deaths double in three days before. But now, it takes seven days before the numbers double.]

In a press release on the same day, DOH said, “Dr. Wong stated that although we will not be seeing fewer cases just yet, he is confident that as we ramp up testing nationwide, the overall strategy against COVID-19 is working— buying the health system more time until a vaccine or cure is developed.”

“When we relax the ECQ, we will see another surge of cases. We have to observe all the mitigation measures, that’s how we delay the appearance of a third wave,” Dr. Wong was quoted in the press release.

In the same press release, Vergeire acknowledged everyone’s sacrifices that contributed as the country started to flatten the curve.

“Lahat po ng ating mga sakripisyo nitong nakaraang linggo ay hindi napunta sa wala. Nakikitaan na po natin ng mga senyales na napa-flatten na natin ang curve. Ibig pong sabihin, dahil sa ating pagtutulungan at pakikiisa sa mga inisyatiba ng gobyerno, nasimulan na nating pabagalin ang pagdami ng mga kumpirmadong kaso ng COVID-19 upang hindi ma-overwhelm ang ating mga ospital at health system,” said Vergeire.

The statement of DOH Sec. Francisco Duque III yesterday that the country is now in the second wave of COVID-19 cases transmission was contradicted by Malacañang Palace today. However, Presidential Spokesperson Harry Roque said there could have been different readings on the same data, arising from the government’s top doctor. The difference in just on the terminology on when is the big wave coming and the government is united to prevent another surge of cases.

Duque’s statement was met by denials of several doctors and other government officials and also drew public ire, until today’s confirmation from the president’s office that the country is still on the first wave. But Duque was not alone, as other members of the DOH and members of working groups of the IATF echoed his “second wave” reading on the COVID-19 outbreak in the country.

Vergeire echoed Duque’s statement on the second wave.

“In technical or epidemiological terms, we are already considered as being in the second wave. The first wave was a minor one, with only 3 cases at its peak, happened in January,” said Vergeire.

Many who contested Duque’s statement countered that the country has too few tests done and has not even flattened the curve.

Testing capacity in the country remains below its May 15 target of 20,000 per day. Tests conducted per day has only surpassed the 5-digit mark only twice, despite repeated pronouncements from the DOH and IATF that the country is nearing its testing capacity target. The last report on testing was on May 15, where the DOH reported 207,823 unique individuals tested or around 0.19% of the population.

As of the May 19 National Task Force on COVID-19 meeting with President Rodrigo Duterte, the government is targetting to test two million Filipinos, with a testing capacity target goal of 50,000 tests per day by June.